There was a prognosis for the earthquake in Liaoning province, but already in 1976, one happened in Tangashan province, that could not have been predicted, and one that had claimed thousands of lives. An earthquake is a complex geological phenomenon. Ilinčić explains that earthquakes are due to changes in speed of seismic waves in the surface level of Earth’s core, rising or lowering of the ground in the future epicenter, emission of radon from earth and water, lowering of electrical resistance of the surface, appearance of series of smaller and larger earthquakes, sudden shifts in levels of underwaters. Still, the main reason of the inability to scientifically predict earthquakes, according to Ilinčić, is the wrong theory on how earthquakes appear.
„My theory on earthquake genesis entails significant changes of mass within the Earth during a period of many years, and especially in the few months before the earthquake. The conclusion is that for a successful prediction of earthquakes, one needs to look at changes in speed of seismic waves and vertical shifts of the ground, as well as measurements of fluctuation of gravitational field”, he said.
Zoran Ilinčić, in his explanation of how to predict earthquakes, says that the first parameter is determining the location of future earthquake.
„The first phase would be measuring horizontal and vertical ground shifts in the zone where there is seismic risk present. This is fairly simple procedure and is possible to be done using GPS. One such device exists in Montenegro, and it is used to measure shifts of the tectonic plate our country is located on. Our plate moves 7mm towards Italy every year. After measuring horizontal and vertical shifts, the second phase would be analysis of masses under the solid core of Earth, using artificially created seismic waves, similar to the procedure of finding mineral wealth. Based on the analysis of such events, it would be possible to predict an earthquake within one day”, Ilinčić concluded.
