Milatovic vs Becic

Good morning! The biggest drama and fight for votes in the first round of elections will be between Democrats and Europe Now. It’s easier for Djukanovic and Mandic because they only need to animate their voters.

Milatovic vs Becic

The first round of the election will be a piece of cake for Djukanovic. The DPS just needs to make an effort to animate as many of its supporters and ethnic minority parties as possible. Andrija Mandic is in a similar position. But for Mandic, a lot depends on the balance of power between the Democrats and Europe Now.

Becic and Milatovic, that is, their parties have a task to animate the most elusive part of voters. While Mandic and Djukanovic are quite defined in terms of ideology and values, the majority of voters in Montenegro today is not. Research shows that a large part of voters is fed up with the current political offer, as well as that political parties enjoy less and less trust from citizens.

Montenegro is an ethnically polarized country, which is strongly reflected in politics. There are serious efforts to create a centre that wouldn’t depend on either the DPS or the DF, but they’re making a mistake by assuming that identity issues can be ignored and that centre can be clearly defined. While in reality that center is very elusive, and in order for it to be maximally animated and mobilized, it requires a serious and skillful populist and the most empty, most general populist catch-all platform in which everyone could find something for themselves.

Who are the people Becic and Milatovic can count on? That pool, which will vote neither for Mandic nor Djukanovic, could be defined most banally and simply as ‘moderate Serbs and disappointed Montenegrins’. A part of disappointed Montenegrins, that is, the sovereignist part of voters, which spent the previous two years in protests, can hardly vote for the Democrats and Milatovic, especially because of their over-emphasized loyalty to the Serbian Orthodox Church. That is why a part of them will vote for Draginja in the first round and Djukanovic in the second round. This is shown by Besic’s research, as well as common sense.

So, who’s better in animating the moderate Serbs and disappointed moderate Montenegrins. It used to be done by DPS. While the People’s Party and LSCG once animated voters who today Vijesti calls two extremisms, the DPS gathered people from both sides of the identity divisions. Who has a better chance of being the new DPS today?

While Spajic was a candidate, he managed to impose the aura of that “new sovereignist” who in the future could potentially shake off the influence of the SPC and experience an evolution similar to that of the DPS. Becic has also come a long way since SNP’s fight for the tricolor. Democrats are louder in their resistance to official Serbia, Europe Now has not clearly defined itself there. As for the Serbian Church, both are very dependent on them. The Becic family installs a monument to the late Metropolitan Amfilohije in Kolasin, while Milatovic goes to the temple to celebrate his victory in the Podgorica election.

The biggest fight will be happening between these two candidates because of the afore-mentioned similar offers. There’s a little war on social media between activists and supporters of these two parties. One will come out as a winner or both will lose already in the first round of elections.

That’s all for today. Until tomorrow.

Kind regards,