It seems that Washington has run out of credible ideas for solving the emerging conflicts in the region. Instead of thwarting pan-Serbism and curbing Croatian and Albanian equivalents, some officials naively believe in a kind of regional “multipolarism” in which smaller states are subordinated to the policies of larger regional powers, Janus Bugajski, a senior associate at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, says in an interview for ‘Danas’. He assessed that in the coming years Montenegro would be a battleground between supporters of independence and advocates of the Serbian and Russian “World”. Mr Bugajski believes that ahead of the extraordinary parliamentary elections in Montenegro, which are scheduled for June 11, a more open and stronger hybrid influence of Serbia and Russia on Montenegro can be expected.
In a column he wrote for istraga.ba, Mr Bugajski noted that so far various plans have been proposed to resolve the conflicts, including the exchange of territories and the adjustment of borders in order to build more ethnically homogeneous states, but without any success amid fears that this could accelerate new armed conflicts.
Despite this, he writes, the course of events during the last year indicates that Washington and Brussels may have devised a blueprint for a new regional solution – a tripartite plan aiming to reward Belgrade, Zagreb and Tirana with political and economic influence over weaker neighboring states and more direct control over related population in the neighboring countries.
According to the plan, Serbia would greatly dominate its entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina even without the formal division and merging.
“Serbian and Croatian nationalists could join their forces and paralyze B&H institutions… Belgrade would also be authorized to do Montenegro over like Serbia over their allies and proxies with the help of the Serbian Orthodox Church and Serbian nationalist representatives in both the parliament and government”.
