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Local election analysis: Who was right and whose campaign boomeranged?

The political battle for Cetinje has not been completed. Despite the strongest campaign, the biggest commitment, promises made, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) won only 16 seats in the old capital’s assembly and cannot form the government itself. It lacks one councillor to have absolute power, because the Cetinje Assembly has 33 council seats. This is a big drop compared to 2013, when DPS won 19 seats.

However, the last local elections show a clear picture of opposition’s actions. The citizens punished narratives without concrete solutions and repeated allegations. Opposition representatives have no chance of forming power. Some of them even risk the disappearance from the political scene.

One of the questions is why DPS failed to fully succeed in Cetinje despite the most committed campaign and promises made in Cetinje?

One of the explanations could be that URA Civic Movement attracted votes of citizens who support Montenegro’s sovereignty, thus depriving DPS of several seats and winning five of them. However, unfulfilled promises also left DPS without significant number of votes. One of those used by the opposition in the campaign against DPS is the most famous chocolate factory, which should have been built in 2014. More than 70 citizens of Cetinje were supposed to work in it.

It seems that the Cetinje wanted another scenario in these elections – to prevent the DPS from governing the city. And they succeeded.

New Cetinje government will depend on Ivan Brajovic’s Social Democrats (SD) who won two seats. The state level of the coalition now moves to the local one in the old capital.

SD will soon present its requirements to DPS.

DPS is aware that it might be a challenge since DPS and SD Cetinje committees do not get along well. This was demonstrated even during the pre-election campaign when the SD list leader in Cetinje elections Ivan Gazivoda fiercely attacked DPS on several occasions, particularly with regard to unfulfilled promises.

Aleksa Becic’s Democrats (DCG) are in shock because of Cetinje. Despite the campaign that was tougher than the one of all the other players in the political race, this party won only five seats, although it expected to get more.

It seems that citizens responded to the Democrats’ aggressive campaign. Perhaps the best testimony is the message on social media, in which citizens had a clear message for a campaign that did not offer a solution, but only attacked the government: “You made us vote for DPS”.

These local elections show that Ranko Krivokapic’s SDP is facing a fierce political fall.

The most serious failure occurred in Petnjica where the party used to have 11 seats. Now it won only one and barely crossed the threshold. This is a huge shock, but it seems to be a declining trend of support for this party at all levels.

It did not cross the threshold in Mojkovac and Tuzi, and in Cetinje SDP won three seats compared to five seats it won in 2013 local elections.

According to analysts, Ranko Krivokapic’s party was punished for “political roaming” from government to opposition and even reconciling positions with Democratic Front (DF).

DF showed signs of life only in Mojkovac. It won four seats. Although they were omnipresent most active during the campaign there (even helping people in the works in their households), citizens did not support DF as the political alliance expected.

This time, it seems that prime minister Dusko Markovic was a game changer, who was supported by fellow citizens.

And not just that – it appears that the judicial proceeding against the DF leaders leaves a sharp cut. DF has no representatives in Cetinje, Petnjica and Tuzi assemblies. With this trend, DF could face the fate of some of the marginalized parties.

Finally, after the results of the election, one thing is clear – DPS remains in power because the opposition has failed.

 

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