By Andrej Nikolaidis, CdM columnist
Why is Andrija Mandic once again imposing the Serbian language as the main topic, which, he says, should be a broad social dialogue?
Because, as usual, he needs fights and ethnic tensions.
And why does he need tension right now?
Because Vucic, Dodik and their joint project of the Serbian World are not doing well. Vucic is on a seesaw: Maybe he will fall and maybe not. But the damage has already been done – he is no longer a strong leader. He is too weak to be Trump’s player. He can no longer guarantee anything to anyone. He can no longer finish the job. Even if he remains in power, weakened like this, his days as ruler of Serbia are numbered – one way or another, this is the beginning of his end. He is no longer a reliable asset. As such, he will be replaced by another.
The same applies to Dodik. He went too far. Every day he spends in power is just a postponement of the inevitable – and that is an escape to Belgrade, Budapest or Moscow.
This postpones the process of consolidation and improvement of the Serbian World indefinitely.
And that is dangerous, because the destructive power of Vucic, Dodik and Mandic is still great. And they have little left but destruction.
Mass protests in Serbia in a way seem like a blast from the past: They are completely out of the spirit of the new times, out of the Zeitgeist that is decisively shaped by the Fascist International.
Students in Serbia essentially stand for a liberal-democratic state – a clear division of power into three independent, mutually controlling parts and the rule of law. They are doing this at a time when the Trump administration and the pack of dogs from the fascist international are making a frontal attack on every democratic value. Students fight against an authoritarian leader in a time of authoritarian leaders.
While dictators around the world are getting stronger, the one in Serbia is getting weaker, which is a direct consequence of the student protests, which have no support from the EU or the USA. And that is precisely why they are so powerful and devastating for Vucic: because they are not a construct, they are not financed from the outside, but they are an evolutionary defensive reaction of Serbian society to Vucic’s frenzied criminal rule. However, it is a matter of when the EU will understand that, especially in the new constellation of forces, its primary interest in the Balkans is to break up the unholy alliance with the Belgrade dictator and Greater Serbian nationalism – when it will understand that its interest is the rapid entry of Montenegro into the EU, a stable Bosnia and Herzegovina and a democratized Serbia that is forced to give up the idea of governing neighboring countries through puppets such as Dodik and Mandic.
The dangerous crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is literally on the verge of a new war, is a direct consequence of Dodik and Vucic’s less wrong, more premature interpretation of the new policy of the American empire.
On the one hand, it is obvious that Vucic is trying to stay in power by opening up the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina and then calling on the citizens of Serbia to unite in the defense of the Serbs in Bosnia and the survival of the Serb Republic entity – of course, under his leadership. When national interests are at stake, who has time for democracy? Then, it is time for the nation to unite around an authoritarian leader. That is Vucic’s plan. There is no doubt that Vucic will also add the fight for his “disenfranchised” compatriots in Montenegro. With his initiative on Serbian as the official language, Mandic throws a volley at him.
Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, on the other hand, estimated that right now is the moment to complete the process of secession of the Serb Republic from Bosnia and Herzegovina – which he has been working on for more than a decade.
Ever since the end of the war in Bosnia, it was clear that “stop” was not pressed for that conflict, but “pause” was. Namely, it was clear that the Serb Republic would attempt to separate from Bosnia and join Serbia at the first opportunity, when it was assessed that the geopolitical circumstances were favorable.
Now is that moment. The Empire is abandoning its old policies, including those in our region. It abandons old allies and seeks new ones. Dodik saw an opportunity in that. At the same time, he could not wait and delay any longer, since he was sentenced to a year in prison and a ban on political activity in the Bosnian court because of his secessionist decisions.
He responded by imposing laws exempting his territory – the Serb Republic – from the legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina, so that the decisions of the courts in Sarajevo were no longer valid there. In order to avoid arrest, he banned the work of the state police and intelligence services in his entity.
With that, the secession was practically over: all that was left was to seize the borders and declare independence – which was completed in a single night.
Dodik counted on the following. First, Trump’s affection for tyrants, who can quickly and without question do what he asks without spending time and energy on democratic procedures. Second, he counted on Trump’s support for Russia and Putin, who support Dodik – an ally of my ally is also my ally. Third, he counted on the help of the entire growing fascist international, from Trump and Putin at the top, through Orban, from whom he even received armed help, to all the petty fascists behind the keyboard, who would disseminate Dodik’s narrative about the Christian people (Serbs) exposed to assimilation and terror by Muslims (Bosniaks), which is why it is necessary for them to leave the “Muslim state”.
However, he made a mistake. He hurried. Through the mouth of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Trump administration condemned Dodik’s actions and supported the sovereignty and integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trump has not yet completed the architecture of the world of authoritarian leaders and bare power, in which there is room for what Dodik intends to do. So Dodik found himself offside.
From where there is no going back. This makes the situation even more dangerous. Since he cannot retaliate, because in that case he faces prison, Dodik sees the conflicts in Bosnia as a way to remain free.
At the moment, both Dodik and Vucic have an interest in a controlled conflict in Bosnia. But “controlled conflicts” easily slip into uncontrolled ones, as is well known.
During that time, Montenegro sleeps like the dead. Except for Mandic and his ilk, who are the only ones who have a reactionary attitude towards the fairy tale of Montenegro’s entry into the EU in 2028. If Mandic thought that the integration of Montenegro into the European Union was really close, he would lead an even more aggressive and, for that matter, more harmful policy.
In order to believe (or claim to believe) that Belgrade, Banjaluka and the political structures in Montenegro that are in power and under their control will allow Montenegro’s exit from the Serbian World and its entry into the EU and will not put up a huge resistance to that, you need to be a mutton-head or a scoundrel.
Let me formulate it this way. If Montenegro under Mandic’s leadership enters the EU in 2028, hang me by my balls at the Market of the Balsics. And bring the students from the Seminary to carry out the local equivalent of the Chinese water torture on me day and night, in shifts – molestation with priest’s wife. So put me through the torments of hell and get them to sing Danica Crnogorcevic’s hits for me.
(Columnists’ opinions and views are not necessarily those of the CdM editorial staff)
