By Dr. Ivan Vukovic, Vice President of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Political Sciences
Although many people who follow events on the Montenegrin political scene often think otherwise, there is no more important issue for the political future of our country than the EU integration process.
Its long-term political stability, economic development, overall progress, and possibly its very survival as a multi-ethnic democracy will most directly depend on whether Montenegro will secure membership in this prestigious political club in time. That is why, regardless of daily political preoccupations, those who have been given the mandate to choose the right – therefore, European – path for Montenegro at the political crossroads we are approaching, should be aware of their responsibility for the future of our country and society.
After running the governments that are responsible for the overall progress achieved so far in terms of EU integration, the Democratic Party of Socialists, in April 2022, provided support to the minority government that had the task of bringing our country to the threshold of the Union through the implementation of obligations from the European agenda.
On the contrary, fully aware of the political consequences that this will produce, Prime Minister Abazovic prioritized the adoption of the so-called fundamental contract with the Serbian Orthodox Church. Instead of his own, Abazovic – in all probability much earlier – chose to serve the interests of another state, namely one whose leadership does not want a European future for our region, and therefore not for Montenegro either.
Epilogue: a vote of no confidence in his government and instead of early elections soon after – we witness political dragging of the country with increasingly more democratic regression, i.e. authoritarian practices (abuse of other public bodies, continuous attacks on critically-oriented media and NGOs) most other public officials and, finally, a lost year for Montenegro.
And yet, opened by the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the “window of opportunity” for the accelerated completion of Montenegro’s accession negotiations with the European Union is still open. Despite the astonishing state irresponsibility of the current prime minister and those political structures thanks to which his government has lasted almost a year in a technical mandate, Montenegro is still the only country in the region that has a real chance to become part of the EU in the foreseeable future.
Whether this will actually happen largely depends on the outcome of the process of negotiations on the formation of the next government.
In order for Montenegro to do its “homework” on time, it is necessary that, in the shortest possible time, it gets a truly pro-European, efficient government that, relying on the “institutional memory” of those who managed the EU integration process until 2020, would put all its capacities into fulfilling temporary criteria in key chapters by the middle of next year. This is the only way to recommend Montenegro strongly enough for full membership in the European Union, while there is still a possibility.
For now, given the composition and way of communication of potential future partners in the executive power, we do not have too much reason for optimism. It is clear that the government that would include the remnants of the pro-Putin Democratic Front, with over 20 ministries, among which those of the greatest importance for the EU accession process were perceived as “political change”, has no chance to take advantage of the mentioned opportunity.
Also, even a government that could not at any moment ensure support of at least 49 MPs, would not be able to quickly and efficiently meet the remaining obligations on the path to EU membership.
All that, it seems, does not worry much those whose decisions may affect the European future of Montenegro.
Moreover, in an emphatically provincial political manner, hopelessly looking at the political past, with an emphasized sense of their own political importance and a message deprived of any meaning, most key actors in the process of negotiations on the formation of the government seem completely inadequate for the historical opportunity that our country still has.
So, instead of specific obligations, the future government already on the first day after its formation, is evaluating the degree of acceptability of “principles” such as the independence and international recognition of Montenegro, its multi-ethnic character, membership in NATO…
What, I guess, should provide a note of seriousness to the political market we are witnessing, actually speaks of the fact that, viewed from their point of view, the very existence of Montenegro and everything that makes up its value foundation is still not a matter of political facticity, but the “food for thought”.
What you should really think about is the following. In short, Montenegro has a little less than a year to convince its European partners that it is worthy of membership in the Union.
Elections for the EP will be held in June next year. The structure of the future European Commission, which will start with its work in December 2024, will depend on their outcome.
The political climate throughout the European Union is such that it is realistic to expect far-right parties to win in a number of member states and, in general, achieve the best results since 1979, when the first European elections were held.
If we’re familiar with the attitude of the majority of them towards the idea of European integration and, especially, the further expansion of the EU, it is clear that this will represent an aggravating circumstance for all states-aspirants for membership in the Union.
In addition, the further strengthening of far-right populists will, without a doubt, push the political pendulum in the observed countries to the right, making it increasingly difficult for parties of the ideological center to defend traditional positions in relation to the most important political issues, including – generally unpopular – European policies.
This is evidenced, among other things, by the recent downfall of the Dutch government caused by divisions within the ruling coalition regarding the treatment of asylum seekers, as well as the statement by the leader of the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz, in which he opens space for cooperation at the local level with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). For the same reason, fearing that the extreme right in the form of the “Vox” party could be in power for the first time after the introduction of democracy in Spain, the whole of Europe closely followed the recent parliamentary elections in this country.
In Austria, which is expected to hold parliamentary elections in just over a year, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is by far the most popular political party.
Finally, the development of events in Ukraine could push the Western Balkan region into the background when it comes to the European integration process. Namely, those who, at the most important European political addresses, are advocating the earliest possible admission of this country into full membership are getting louder.
The logic is as follows: in a situation where the admission of Ukraine to NATO would represent, for quite obvious reasons, too great a security risk, joining the EU could be considered an adequate and, potentially, generally acceptable “reward” for the heroic defense against Russian aggression and the necessary guarantee of the democratic development of Ukraine in the post-war period.
In other words, the next European Commission could thoroughly redefine the priorities regarding the enlargement policy, which, when it comes to Montenegro, would result in significantly less – and possibly a complete absence – of enthusiasm on the part of our European partners.
Therefore, if we truly want to make Montenegro a part of the European Union and, in this way, enable this and future generations to live a European quality of life, we must do our best to take advantage of the chance we still have!
It is done with concrete actions, not with empty phraseology, which, unfortunately for Montenegro, many political actors participating in the process of negotiations on the future government perceive as the essence of political activity. We have very little time to, as a country, do what is necessary to irreversibly trace the path to the door of the European Union.
In essence, with valuable accomplishments during the decade before the political changes of 2020, our performance in terms of European integration in the future period should be such that those on whose political will the assessment of what has been done will depend “before the deed”. That is, the results of the work of the next government must be such that even those European politicians who do not necessarily have too much sensitivity when it comes to the enlargement process will not be able to deny or ignore them.
For the sake of comparison, Montenegro’s accession to NATO was successfully completed also because, thanks to responsible state policy, most of the work was completed in the years before the start of the presidential mandate of Donald Trump, who, according to the later testimonies of his closest allies, even considered the possibility of the United States withdrawing from the North Atlantic Alliance.
In order to succeed in the historic mission of making Montenegro a part of the EU, it is necessary that the state policy in the coming period is shaped by people who sincerely believe in the European value system and who possess the knowledge and experience necessary to meet the obligations on our European path.
If we do not succeed in this, the window of opportunity for Montenegro will, by all accounts, be permanently closed. In that case, for that pro-European majority in our country, which survives despite the aforementioned, it will be completely unimportant who will “turn off the light” at the end of the day.
