By Vesko Garcevic
Testifying in front of Congressional Board, director of the US FBI James Comey said that FBI was investigating ties between Donald Trump and Russia, wrote Vesko Garcevic for The Conversant. Vesko Garcevic used to be national coordinator for NATO, now professor at Boston University.
The investigation is ongoing, but Americans should be reminded of Russia’s influence outside the US – especially on Balkans.
Small but strategic
British Prime Minister Theresa May recently expressed worry due to Moscow’s involvement in the alleged state coup in Montenegro.
Between 2010 – 2015, I was an ambassador of Montenegro to NATO. During the last parliamentary elections on October 16th, Montenegro suffered an alleged state coup. Although Russia denied involvement, details emerged that prompted New York Times to mark the affair as “Russia’s attempt to cause chaos”.
Special State Prosecutor Milivoje Katnic confirmed involvement of two agents of Russian GRU, Vladimir Popov and Eduard Shirokov. GRU is the same organization that was sanctioned by Obama’s administration due to hacking of DNC. Shirokov, also known as Shishmakov, was an assistant military official in Russian embassy in Poland until 2014, when Poland expatriated him due to suspicions that he was a spy.
The goal of the coup was to overthrow the Government, kill then-Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and install a political group that was opposed to NATO membership.
Despite Russia’s opposition, joining NATO is one of the main strategic goals of Montenegro. The Accession Protocol has been largely ratified, and it seems Montenegro will be a member by May 2017, with Spain and the US left to ratify.
In the US, the process was stopped for a few months. Recently, the voting cause a discussion between senators John McCain and Rand Paul. Paul, opposed to ratification, used Senate’s rules to postpone it.
Some officials in the US and Europe do not see a point of Montenegro in NATO, a small state with a small army. But Moscow sees Montenegro differently, and considers Montenegro far more important than its size.
In September 2013, Russia made a “request” to Montenegro “to discuss conditions of allowing Russian military ships a port in Bar and Kotor”. The request was prompted by war in Syria, and Montenegro denied it.
The importance of such request was demonstrated when Russian carrier was denied port in European stations.
This the reason Moscow is so dissatisfied with Montenegro’s decision to join NATO. If it happens, NATO will have control of all northern ports on Mediterranean.
Moscow grows more stressed as the membership approaches. In my opinion, the alleged coup was a culmination of synchronized actions that spanned 18 months, including an active media campaign. Russia started a few media in Serbian language – including Sputnik and Russia Today. Combined with political and financial support to pro-Russian political subjects, the whole campaign is an obvious attempt to prevent Montenegro’s membership in NATO.
Rare loss
Montenegro is but one of the losses Moscow had in competition with the West. Despite its efforts and money, Moscow did not stop the pro-Western path of Montenegro. Montenegro and Albania joined EU sanctions against Russia, for instance.
Russia’s involvement in Montenegro’s affairs is part of the larger strategy of Russia to prevent NATO and EU expansion. In 2008, Putin successfully steered away Georgia from such a path.
For now, it seems that Russia has lost the possibility to control a strategic port on the Adriatic. If the US takes a step back, reaches an agreement with Russia or similar, that can have detrimental consequences for this region, European safety and long term interests of the US in Europe.
