The analysts, however, say it is too early for concrete forecasts, adding the outcome will also depend on the trends in oil prices, bonds, and other commodities, writes Pobjeda daily.
Economic analyst Dr Vasilije Kostic says the key issue is the exchange rate of USD against the EUR, because Montenegro is an euro-based economy, in which a significant number of companies have dollar payments.
“This is important for us because of the highway as well, because we took a loan in dollars for its construction. But no one knows the direction in which the exchange rate will go. While making projections, one must not forget the radical pessimism of investors in relation to the securities market. This can be a significant element in the correction of future economic activity”, said Kostic and added it remains to be seen what will the US Federal Reserve do, and whether they will affect the benchmark interest rate, or to what extent.
Although Kostic emphasized the “Black Monday” will certainly influence the world economy, he said not even these significant stock market losses necessarily mean new world economic crisis.
Independent MP Mladen Bojanic, who was once the director of Nex Stock Exchange, also believes the current losses in stock markets will not have direct impact on Montenegro, but will instead result in indirect impact on the local capital market.
“It will be interesting to see how this crisis will affect the dollar and euro ratio, especially because of our huge project for construction of the highway. Montenegro will be most affected by the movement of oil prices. Bonds on the European and world markets are also very important for Montenegro, because in the future period, it is expected that we will take more loans. It is also significant for Montenegro whether this crisis will stay a while, meaning whether it will affect the volume of investments”, explained Bojanic.
Economic analyst Predrag Drecun says losses on the world stock markets should not be reflected in Montenegro for now.
“But every global crisis, not to mention the third wave of the crisis, if it occurred, would affect Montenegro. Perhaps things could turn out well for us, considering that we are tied to the dollar through our debt for the highway. I would not be surprised with the significant drop of the dollar, which would make our highway cheaper, but… All in all, it is early for predictions”, Drecun agreed with this colleagues.
