Good morning! It’s thankless to make predictions in politics, but based on what the indicators are currently saying, what can the year ahead bring us, the year to which the 44th Government of Montenegro is scheduled by the annex?
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What does geopolitics have in store for us?
The ruling majority termed Spajic’s government for one year. After a year, and before voting on the 2025 Budget, the majority committed to include the former DF in the government, i.e., Mandic and Knezevic’s party. What global events can threaten or strengthen this agreement and make Montenegro an easier or harder prey for Russian-Serbian interests in the Balkans?
Here I wanted to briefly refer to the key political events in the world, which have the potential to strongly influence global conflicts, primarily the course of the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Palestine.
Let’s start from America. Within the divided Republican Party, after the dismissal of Kevin McCarthy and the crisis that followed, there was a consolidation of the party and a sharp turn to the right. Mike Johnson, a Trump loyalist, took over the presidency of the congress, which can be read as a convincing victory for the hard right among Republicans, who are still divided between the right and those pejoratively called RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), Neocons, etc. Only because of their willingness to cross party lines and work with Democrats on important national issues.
Polarization in America is not abating. American political elites have not found a cure for the growing support for the extreme poles of American politics. Disinformation, external influence, culture wars, strengthening of identity politics further complicate the dialogue and narrow the space for it. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has shown another line of polarization, with Democratic voters increasingly supporting Palestine, while Republicans remain firmly pro-Israel.
In a year, the election for the American president will be held. At the same time, elections for members Congress, the House of Representatives (435) and the Senate (34) will be held. As things stand now, the polling agencies give a slight edge to Trump.
The aforementioned Mike Johnson, who was elected as the Speaker of the Lower House of Congress, duly voted against all support packages for Ukraine and thereby showed how an administration made up of people ideologically close to him would behave. After the increasingly certain failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, after the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, a possible scenario could be the freezing of the conflict in Ukraine, and this could benefit Putin and his ambitions.
If Trump wins, and the power of the Republicans loyal to him is consolidated in both houses of Congress, it would significantly help to politically swallow the entry of the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian Front into power in Montenegro.
On this side of the ocean, things seem a little clearer. Election for the European Parliament are scheduled for May. Recently, elections were held in Poland in which the Eurosceptic and strongly conservative government was defeated. Former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is taking over power. If a stable pro-European government is formed, the core of the EU will certainly be strengthened. France and Germany and their commitment to the EU will be strengthened by a stable partner in the east of the Union. If Europe learns to deal with populism that feeds on polarization, the Western Balkans will still have something to hope for, and Montenegro can become a demonstrative example that EU enlargement is not blocked and forgotten. The only problem may arise if we choose the Front in the government at a time when the EU potentially opens up to us.
That’s it for today. We wish you a pleasant rest of the day.
Kind regards,
Ljubomir Filipovic, CdM analyst and columnist
(The opinions and views of the authors of the columns are not necessarily those of the CdM editorial staff)
