Good morning! Executive power, i.e., the government without confidence and its constituents have different views on who should be supported in the elections. Let’s see who supports who.
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One Government – Three Candidates
Montenegro is ruled by a structure that has no legitimacy. SNP, URA and the Bosniak Party, with less than 10% support, control 100% of the executive power. Proof of their weak political strength is that none of these parties will have a candidate in the elections.
Although it was speculated that the Bosniak Party could come out with the candidacy of Kenana Strujic Harbic, a charismatic MP in the Montenegrin Parliament, the leader of that party and minister in the government, Ervin Ibrahimovic, announced that they would still support Milo Djukanovic’s candidacy. If Vijesti can be trusted, there are different views on the presidential elections in the Bosniak Party, which led to the postponement of the formal decision, as well as to the dismissal of Minister Adrovic from the position of general secretary of the party. I would still leave a grain of skepticism on this speculation, until a formal confirmation of the reason for the turbulence in the largest minority party in Montenegro is received.
SNP did what we expected from them. They supported Mandic. SNP has long been perceived as an affiliated part of the Democratic Front (DF). They are identical in obedience to Belgrade, in politics and in practice. That party is what SD was to DPS, let’s say. That is why it is not surprising that they chose their favorite in the presidential elections so easily.
URA is also a DF’s pendant. Only their chain is a little longer. As SDP’s to DPS. They are at minimum support, if surveys can be trusted. Too big and too frequent turns. Running from one block to another and back. Membership compromise, Abazovic’s outbursts. All this made this party lose the trust of the citizens. Abazovic will not openly support Mandic, but he will probably remain reserved in the first round, in the sense that he will not clearly define who he will support. The message will be to vote for “citizen candidates”, and Andrija Mandic probably belongs there now. One spot was enough.
The presidential elections will resolve many dilemmas, including the one about the survival of the executive power in this form.
If Djukanovic wins, and if in the meantime the Constitutional Court makes a decision to declare the law on the president unconstitutional, it could be the fastest shortcut to early parliamentary elections. Which are not so early anymore, if we understand each other.
If Milatovic wins, there could also be parliamentary elections, because in that case his party would need to confirm in Parliament its successes in the presidential and local elections held in Podgorica in October.
If Becic wins, then there could be a government reshuffle with a greater personnel respect for the Democrats. It is similar with the situation and scenario in which Andrija Mandic would win. The obstacle here would still be the refusal of URA and SNP to hand over the levers of government, which could ultimately lead to early elections.
And the fairest thing would be to organize elections. The only thing is that if they are to be held in the autumn, we risk matching the announced census. It means that we will have another campaign burdened with identity issues. If there is a reshuffle, the government will have the legitimacy to de jure introduce us to the Open Balkans, because the weak Dritan has already de facto introduced us there.
That’s it for today. We wish you a pleasant rest of the day.
Kind regards,
Ljubomir Filipovic, CdM analyst and columnist
(The opinions and views of the authors of the columns are not necessarily those of the CdM editorial staff)
