Good morning! Dritan is the prime minister, it remains to be seen who will be the ministers; the DF is asking to be in the government; the Belgrade Patriarchate is sending warnings for the restless clergy in Montenegro through Rakovic; the front for protests is expanding; Cetinje SDP strongly insists on demands that the DPS not head the city.
Dritan is the Prime Minister
Surprisingly, Dritan Abazovic decided to take political responsibility for everything that will happen in the coming period. Unless he has already come to terms with the failure of negotiations on a minority government, which he plans to attribute to another. Joke aside, Abazovic will now have the difficult task of juggling everything he promised the DF, the audience he cares about the most, and the expectations of the DPS, which has so far been the only one to give him blank support to form the government without it.
Here are a few problems, which seem irreconcilable and unsolvable:
DF wants to be in government. If the DF was in the government, the protests would calm down and curb Vucic, and the Fundamental Agreement would pass without problems, but if Abazovic accepted that, he would lose the support of the opposition and Western partners, who clearly pointed out that the DF was still out of question. Plus, the entry of the DF into the government would not be acceptable for minority parties either, which in this case would only mean re-composition within the ruling majority, which would mean support for the humiliated Democrats, now very distant from the URA.
URA promised to sign the Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church. If the Agreement is signed in the form in which it is presented, the support of the SDP, which has two MPs, will be lost. The lack of SDP support could be compensated by the support of the SNP, but the SNP is having a hard time making agreements without the Front and Vucic’s approval. An additional aggravating circumstance is that both the DPS and the SD would find it difficult to explain to their voters their support for a government that would sign such a Fundamental Agreement. The Orthodox Church of Serbia is already holding Dritan on a quiet fire, and is letting Rakovic keep the potentially restless local clergy in fear.
Another point of contention is the Open Balkans. Until recently, the parliamentary majority had a consensus, and with some cosmetic changes to the concept, it could be passed by that majority. The DPS is firmly against this concept, while some of the smaller opposition parties have opened the door to the concept during recent debates in Parliament.
The possible presence of SDP and/or SD cadres in the government would be another point of contention. Abazovic said that the SDP could be acceptable in the government, and there were informal meetings on that topic. These two parties in the government would strengthen the support of the state-building bloc and guarantee political stability on the one hand, but their participation in the government would mobilize and homogenize the protest movement, which is already growing and should be counted on. The government would be branded as anti-Serbian, and that narrative, along with false lists of new ministers from the SD and SDP, has already begun to spread in Vucic’s tabloids.
To simplify, there are three possible scenarios and nothing in between. One is an agreement within the current majority, which would be just a postponement of the agony. The second would be the support of the opposition, which would mean political stability and unblocking the reform processes. The third would be elections, which would be the best option for Krivokapic and the Democrats, who would hold all the levers of executive power in their hands until the elections.
Each of these scenarios has its price. Whether Abazovic is ready to pay the price or take a risk, remains to be seen.
Cetinje
Looking at Cetinje, we can already conclude what the agreements on the government would look like if the state-building bloc would win the elections now. Judging by Boro Banovic’s interview with Darko Sukovic, the SDP will not cede the position of mayor to the DPS, which won the largest number of votes in the elections, and accordingly demands that position. This anonymous statement of non-party candidates from the SDP list also speaks in favor of the fact that, if they remain in their positions, there can be no agreement in Cetinje. In that case, new elections will be organized, and someone will pay the price for embarrassment and spilling protest energy from last year.
That’s it for today. See you tomorrow at the same time, in the same place.
Kind regards,
Ljubomir Filipovic, CdM analyst
